Eastside Real Estate Working-for-you!

King County Homes Continue Brisk Selling Pace

By Greg Perry
Kirkland Realtor

Single family homes, for the 7 day period ending on 6/24/09, King County Pending sales continue to be strong with 575 residentail homes selling.

The Eastside areas had 185 pending sales, second best week of the year.

The Seattle Metro areas had 137 pending sales which was somewhat off the pace of recent weeks.

Here is a breakdown of King County areas, by week, with a 7 week average.

Definitions: Pending sales are all new pending catagories with a pending date during the state period.

Eastside: NWMLS Areas 500,510,520,530,540,550,560, 600.

In City: NWMLS Areas 380,385,390,700,705,701,715,720

Eastside Condo Statistics - May 2009

By Greg Perry
Kirkland Realtor

May's pending sales volume was the best for Eastside condos since June of last year.  Pending volume has been steadily going up since March, but at same time more inventory has been coming in.

 

Median prices were also the strongest of the year for Eastside condos, rebounding from April which had the lowest median prices logged in for the year.

 

While May's median price was better, the price per square foot was down over $30.00 per square foot, which means you can buy more condo for the money this year than last.

 

The final chart shows the relationship between CDOM (continuous days on market) and the percentage between the list price and sold price.  Notice as the days on market increase, the LP/SP percentage falls.

 

Eastside = NWMLS Areas 500,510,520,530,540,560,600

 

Should I sell now? Or wait until the market improves?

By Greg Perry
Kirkland Realtor

Almost every day someone asks me the question, "Is this a good time to sell?  Or should I wait until next year when the market improves?

Great question, and I wish I knew the answer. We can't see into the future, (I haven't found any crystal balls that really work) but we can see the market through the lens of the history.

Take a look at this chart (click to expand).
 

The May 2009 median price for King County came in at $380,000.  This is roughly the same as the median price back in July 2005.  From that point in July 2005, the market steadily rose with the some of the highest appreciation rates we have ever seen, to the market peak in July 2007. 

While the last two months median prices have evened somewhat, it's still too early to see if median prices are stabilizing, or will continue to trend downward.

Here's the important point I want to make.  If the market starts appreciating today, how long will it take until it comes back to peak pricing? (Remember the run up from July 2005 until the peak in July 2007 had much higher than normal appreciation rates).

If the King County median prices start to rise today, at a modest 5% rate of appreciation, it will take over 5 years to equal the July 2007 peak!

So, Mr./Mrs Seller, how long should you wait for the market to come back before selling?

Median prices are for King County.  Individual price ranges and locations within King County may be under performing or outperforming the general county conditions.  Statistics compiled from but not verified or published by the NWMLS.

If you would like detailed information about your neighborhood, please call or email!

May 2009 Month End Statistics -- Eastside, Westside and All Around King County

Let's start things off with a series of market "heat maps" that start with May 2008 and compares February and May 2009:

CLICK ON MAPS AND GRAPHS TO ENLARGE IMAGE

 

These maps measure market strength from the sales ratios that create Months of Inventory (MOS) at the current rate of sale.  You will easily see that inventory is rapidly absorbing in King and Snohomish Counties.

Here are some quick facts for Eastside Single Family Homes:
 

Eastside Month over Month Graphs (NWMLS 500,510,520,530,540,550,560,600):
 

In-City (Westside) Month over Month Graphs (NWMLS 380,385,390,700,701,705,710):
 

Here is a map to easily locate the NWMLS Areas:
 

Another 2009 High Water Mark for Weekly King County Pendings

By Greg Perry,
Kirkland Realtor
www.425Realty.com

Single Family Homes

Pending sale counts for King County were the best of year last week (for the 7 day period ending on 06/03) coming in at 657 new pendings. 

King County's Eastside also set a high water mark at 189 pending sales for the week.  44% of these pending sales were under $500,000.

The Metro Seattle area also came in strong with 220 pending sales.  72 percent of the Metro Seattle activity was under the price point of $500,000.

Closed sales were up significantly for the week from previous weeks with 344 closed sales.

 

Definitions:
Eastside: NWMLS AREAS 500,510,520,530,540,550,560,600
Seattle Metro: NWMLS AREAS 140,380,385,390,700,705,710,715,720

Pending: All pendings statuses with a pending date during the stated period.

Chart for week end 5/27.

Chart for week end 5/20.

All Market Watch Entries for 425Realty.com

Seattle: One If Last In and First Out Of Recession?

From Moody's Economy.com:

NEW YORK—

If you want to be in the right place when the recovery starts, that place may be in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas or Washington.

The recession didn't start at the same time in every state, and it won't end at the same time either. A new forecast from Moody's Economy.com predicts that jobs growth will return first in those five states, starting in the last quarter of this year. Four of those states benefit from strong high-tech industries, and the fifth, Texas, has a strong base of energy industries.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30991972/

According to information published by moodyseconomy.com, the Seattle area entered the recession in December 2008 and will  be in substantial recovery in fourth quarter 2009. 

The two biggest influences assisting areas out of recession are:
1.  High tech influence
2.  Less erosion in household credit ratings.

To see interactive maps and article:

 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30991972/

 

Hat tip to Ron Poborsky

King County Weekly Pendings Dip -- Holiday Week? Or Start of a Trend?

For the first week in over 8 weeks, weekly King County pending sales counts dipped in volume from the previous week.  For the 7 day period ending on 5/27, the KC pending count came in at 498.  Last week's high water mark for 2009 was 590 pending sales.

Eastside pending counts were also down, but close to the previous week.  The Eastside areas tallied 155 pending sales this week vs. 166 last week.  40 percent of the pendings were under $500,000 for the week.  Last week this percentage was 38%.

Metro Seattle Pendings were off significantly from the prior week coming in with 169.  Last week these areas had 220.  The price range under $500,000 came in with 64 percent of the pending sales.  Last week, the under $500k price range had 75 percent of the pendings.

Click to expand the chart:

Definitions:
Eastside: NWMLS AREAS 500,510,520,530,540,550,560,600
Seattle Metro: NWMLS AREAS 140,380,385,390,700,705,710,715,720

Pending: All pendings statuses with a pending date during the stated period.

Chart for week end 5/20.

All Market Watch Entries for 425Realty.com

King County Pending Sale Count Approaches 600 for week.

Yet again, sales of King County Single Family Homes continue to reamin strong.  For the 7 days ending on May 20th, King County had 590 Pending sales, which is the best this year.  Last week there were 561 pending sales. 

The Eastside Pending sale count came in at 166 for the period vs. 170 last week.  The price point under $500,000 had 38% of the total count.  Last week this range had 45%.  During the period, 21 homes over $1 million dollars went pending, vs. 26 last week.

Metro Seattle had a strong week with 220 pending sales.  The week prior there were 206.  75% of these pendings were under $500,000.  The Metro Seattle area came in with 2.8 Months of Supply, which for the week makes the area a Seller's advantaged market.

Here is a chart with complete details.  Click to expand:

For the 7 day period ending on 5/20
 

Definitions:
Eastside: NWMLS AREAS 500,510,520,530,540,550,560,600
Seattle Metro: NWMLS AREAS 140,380,385,390,700,705,710,715,720

Pending: All pendings statuses with a pending date during the stated period.

Eastside and Seattle Metro Single Family Home Sales HOT under $500,000

By Greg Perry
Kirkland Realtor

Last week King County turned had it's second best week for SFH pendings since July 2007, the month we really started to feel the impact of mortgage crises.  King County's pending counts came in at 571 for the week.  The Eastside was strong as well, turning in its best performance of the year with 173 pending sales, which also ranks second, going back to July 2007.

Click on graphs and charts to enlarge:

Virtually all King County MLS areas are absorbing inventory, especially in the price ranges under $500,000.  Metro Seattle areas 705,710,715 and 385 have moved into Seller's Advantaged markets taking all weekly activity and averaging over 7 weeks.  Eastside Areas 500,530 and 600 have moved into Balanced Markets.

The majority of sales are being made under $500,000.  On the eastside, 74% (129 out of 174) of the pendings came in under $500,000.  86% (149 out of 173) of Seattle Metro Pendings were in that range.  The price range under $500,000 has less than 2 MOS in Metro Seattle and less than 3 MOS on the Eastside.

There is currently a gap between Pending Sales and Closed Sales as evidenced by this chart:

The gap between the pendings and closings are influeneced by several factors in this market.  Some of these factors are:

1. Short sales taking longer to close than the normal 30-45 days.
2. More buyers cancelling contracts due to bad inspections.
3. Waiting for new construction homes to finish.
4. The current market pending counts jumped at a faster rate than normal.  Even normal 30-45 days closed haven't gone through the pending / sold cycle.

Spring gaps between pendings and sold sales are normal, however. To put this into historical context, here is a 4 year chart showing the relationship between pending sales and sold sales.  Historically, April pending sales are below March pending sales.  As 2009 started, January, February and March had all time low pending sales activity.  The market "ON" switch came on in the last week of March and pendings have been building since that point.  I predict that in June the sold/closed counts will improve significantly.

If you would like detailed information about your neighborhood, drop me an email at gregperry@working-for-you.com.

The Color Of The Market -- King and Snohomish County Months of Supply Heat Maps

By Greg Perry
Kirkland Realtor

These heat maps, based on months of supply (the sales ratio between Active and Pending listings) show you at a glance as to how our market is doing. 

• Areas colored green are Buyer's Advantage Markets and hold over 6 months of inventory at the rate of sale.
• Areas colored yellow are Balanced Markets holding between 3 and 6 months of inventory at the current rate of sale.
• Areas colored red are Seller's Advantaged Markets holding less than 3 months of inventory at the current rate of sale.

Let's start with February 2009 and then look at March 2009 and April 2009, in order:
  

 

 

As we can clearly see, green areas are being replaced by yellow.  Three red appear in April 2009, with 7 additional areas holding between 3 and 4 months of inventory at the rate of sale.

Now compare April 2009 with last year, April 2008:
 

Clearly, these heat map demonstrate that the King County and Snohomish real estate markets are showing positive signs toward recovery.

We've show heat maps in the past.  To see what these maps look like when the market is collapsing, click on this link:  The Changing Colors Of The Season

Statistics compiled from, but not verified or published by NWMLS.

www.425realty.com